— Diplomacy gets another chance
— Middle East feels relieved
By Irum Saleem
US President Donald Trump has suspended further American strikes on Iran, while Tehran has indicated it will halt attacks in the region for as long as Washington maintains the pause, opening a potentially significant window for diplomacy after nearly two weeks of escalating hostilities.
The reciprocal halt in military action came as Washington and Tehran appeared to step back from a wider confrontation that had raised fears of a prolonged regional war, disruption to energy supplies and further attacks on US forces and allies across the Middle East.
A senior Iranian official said on Sunday that Iran would also suspend its attacks as long as the United States maintained its pause. The US decision, which began on Friday, has so far been followed by a second consecutive day without reported American strikes on Iranian targets.
US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz said Washington was giving diplomacy “some space”, signalling that the pause was intended to create an opportunity for negotiations rather than represent an unconditional end to hostilities. US and Iranian officials have continued contacts through regional intermediaries, with Oman and other countries involved in efforts to revive an interim ceasefire arrangement.
The latest de-escalation follows a sharp escalation in which Iran targeted shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz, prompting US military action.
Tehran subsequently launched retaliatory attacks against neighbouring countries hosting American military bases, further widening the conflict beyond the immediate US-Iran confrontation.
The Strait of Hormuz remains at the centre of the crisis.
The strategically vital waterway is crucial to global energy supplies, and uncertainty over maritime traffic has already pushed oil prices higher. The latest fighting has also raised concerns about the security of the Bab al-Mandab route and the wider Gulf shipping network.
The pause, however, has not ended the regional conflict. Iran-aligned Houthi forces have continued to threaten regional security, while recent attacks on Saudi oil installations have demonstrated how quickly the conflict could spread again. Brent crude has risen above $100 a barrel amid concerns over energy supplies and the security of key maritime routes.
Diplomacy gets another chance
The immediate challenge for negotiators is to convert the temporary military pause into a durable arrangement.
Washington is seeking an outcome that addresses the security of shipping and the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran has made clear that it remains prepared to respond if American military operations resume. The two sides therefore remain far apart on the fundamental issues that triggered the latest confrontation.
The absence of US strikes for a second consecutive day nevertheless represents the first meaningful reduction in hostilities after nearly two weeks of sustained military escalation.
Regional officials have described the development as an opportunity to revive negotiations and prevent another cycle of retaliation.
Iran’s position also suggests that the reciprocal nature of the pause could prove crucial.
Tehran has effectively linked its own restraint to continued US restraint, creating a fragile arrangement in which any fresh American strike could trigger renewed Iranian attacks.
Military calculations behind the pause
The decision in Washington also appears to have been shaped by military considerations. Reports indicate that Adm Brad Cooper, the top US military commander in the Middle East, advised that continued bombing along the Strait of Hormuz was producing diminishing results. There have also been concerns within the US military over stocks of air-defence interceptors needed to protect American forces and regional allies.
That has added another layer to Trump’s decision. While the White House has emphasised diplomacy, the pause may also give US forces time to reassess their military posture and replenish defensive capabilities.
For Iran, meanwhile, the halt provides an opportunity to avoid further damage while maintaining pressure over the reopening and operation of the Strait of Hormuz.
Israel factor
Another major uncertainty is Israel’s position.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has backed Washington’s efforts while preparing to meet Trump in Washington.
Israel remains deeply concerned about Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities and has previously pressed for sustained pressure on Tehran.
Tehran, for its part, has warned that the conflict could spread geographically if US strikes resume, while accusing Israel of pushing Washington towards renewed military action.
This leaves the current pause vulnerable not only to direct US-Iran tensions but also to developments involving Israel and Iran’s regional allies.
A fragile opening
For the moment, however, the absence of fresh US and Iranian attacks has created a rare diplomatic opening.
The immediate priority for regional mediators will be to maintain the pause long enough for negotiations to address the most dangerous flashpoints: the Strait of Hormuz, maritime security, US military deployments in the region and Iran’s nuclear programme.
Any agreement would also have to deal with the activities of Iran-aligned groups, particularly around the Red Sea and the Gulf, where attacks could rapidly undermine a US-Iran understanding.
The latest developments therefore fall short of a formal peace agreement or a comprehensive ceasefire. But after days in which each retaliatory strike threatened to produce another, the reciprocal suspension of attacks has given diplomacy a chance to overtake military escalation.
Whether Trump and Iran can turn that pause into a lasting settlement will depend largely on whether both sides can maintain restraint while negotiating issues that have repeatedly brought the region to the brink of a much wider war.
